Comments on: Another election prediction

By: Massimo

Massimo — Tue, 03 May 2011 14:27:25 +0000

I think it’s a red herring.
Look, he was not a good leader, simple as that. He does not understand Canadian politics, nor the Liberal Party in many respects. He made a colossal mistake not to go with the coalition two years ago. He said “Harper, your time is up !” in September 2009, but as soon as he was told that polls did not look good, he quietly took it back. I think he felt that he could just walk in and capture the imagination of Canadians as the visionary outsider whose best credential consists of being recognized in the US. But what “vision” did he provide ?

By: Cath@VWXYNot?

Cath@VWXYNot? — Tue, 03 May 2011 14:20:19 +0000

I’m sure you already know this, but he’s resigned now. I’m watching his resignation speech right now. He says he felt it was his duty as leader of the opposition to force an election when Harper was found in contempt; I agree 100% and still think it was the right thing to do. They just didn’t manage to convey to the electorate the significance of the contempt ruling…

By: Ontarian

Ontarian — Tue, 03 May 2011 05:39:04 +0000

The worst thing about science in Canada is that we have a chiropractor for a science minister.

By: Ontarian

Ontarian — Tue, 03 May 2011 05:36:04 +0000

“Yes, you did call something right but, just like me, underestimated both the collapse of the Liberals and of the BQ, as well as the inroads made by the NDP. ”

Nope. I just wasn’t brave enough to go with my real estimates. Note my use of ‘at least’ rather than ‘about’.

By: Massimo

Massimo — Tue, 03 May 2011 05:08:12 +0000

Yes, you did call something right but, just like me, underestimated both the collapse of the Liberals and of the BQ, as well as the inroads made by the NDP.

I am glad we have a Conservative majority
For a leftist like me, of course, it is difficult to rejoice with such an outcome. Objectively speaking, I see a majority as undeserved and unfair, and I would use the same adjectives if any other party with 40% of the popular votes obtained such a disproportionate number of seats. This is crazy, undemocratic, and I think it is high time for those who wish to see proportional representation to start seriously thinking of a grass root movement, because it is not the kind of change that will ever come from Ottawa. It is also particularly unsettling for me to see someone like Harper, who has no interest in reaching out to the opposition receive a majority on a night in which in terms of sheer consensus his party has barely moved. Of course, equally bizarre is that the Green Party should elect its first representative ever on the night it loses 50% of the votes…

I am happy the Liberals and to a lesser extent the BQ both got crushed.
I echo those sentiments. I am stunned at the nerve of Ignatieff who, unlike Duceppe, did not even have the decency of announcing that he is stepping down, as if this catastrophic result should not be interpreted as his own personal defeat and rejection on the part of the voters. I shall write more once I have the raw numbers. I just hope the Tories prove me wrong, because there is a lot to be very concerned about (the next four years are going to be very bad for science in Canada, I am afraid).

By: Ontarian

Ontarian — Tue, 03 May 2011 04:38:47 +0000

Did I call the majority or what!? My numbers weren’t too bad either!

I am glad we have a Conservative majority. I am very happy with the NDP as the official opposition. I am quite pleased that the under represented Greens finally got a seat. Most of all I am happy the Liberals and to a lesser extent the BQ both got crushed.

So do the results suggest that, in the eyes of voters, the opposition parties should have tried to work with the Conservatives more??

By: Massimo

Massimo — Mon, 02 May 2011 23:42:46 +0000

That is where it gets confusing for me.
My sense is that Harper’s (or maybe everyone’s) assumption has been all along that the “anomalous” BQ should prop whatever government is formed by the party that holds most seats, i.e., their votes should be counted in as “freebies” — because the sum of the votes of the BQ and of the CPC a majority, he feels entitled to refuse to work with others…

There are a number of interesting scenarios that can take place. Say Harper has a minority, “seizes” the Prime Ministerial seat, forms a gov’t, which the opposition wants to bring down, this time with the LPC having picked already a new leader. Would proroguing work this time around ?

By: Cath@VWXYNot?

Cath@VWXYNot? — Mon, 02 May 2011 21:45:40 +0000

I wonder if any other CPC MPs are as sick as we are of Harper’s ongoing refusal to work with the other parties? If he gets another minority and refuses to play nice, might there be a leadership challenge?

By: Massimo

Massimo — Mon, 02 May 2011 14:57:10 +0000

Well, ThreeHundredAndEight.com predicts a final seat allocation not too dissimilar from mine, although things according to them will not be as bad for the Liberals as I am predicting. Same basic scenario, though. I really do not know what would be the point of sending Harper back to being Prime Minister for the third time, given that we already know that he cannot, will not work with others -- he does not even try, he seems to be saying "look, either you give me a majority, or I shall act as if I have one -- just don't ask me to compromise because I just can't..."

By: Cath@VWXYNot?

Cath@VWXYNot? — Mon, 02 May 2011 14:47:33 +0000

I’m hoping for a high turn-out, first and foremost. That way the parliament we elect today will be as representative as possible under FPTP.

I’m heartened by the ongoing opinion I’m hearing that even if Harper-bot wins another minority, he could fail to win the confidence of the house and a formal or informal coalition government could come to power. I found it interesting that he refused to answer the question about whether he would accept the Governor General’s ruling if this were to happen. Fingers and toes all crossed… perhaps we will have the joy of seeing Harper physically removed from office by the RCMP?!